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Live forecasts update automatically; written guidance last reviewed 23 June 2026 by the Australian News Desk Weather Desk. Data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and other national met services via Open-Meteo.
Christmas Day in Melbourne is expected to bring warm to hot conditions, but the live forecast above gives you the precise temperature and any chance of showers for this year. We’ll break down what to expect, from typical summer heat to possible storms, so you can plan your day.
What is the typical weather on Christmas Day in Melbourne?
Melbourne’s Christmas weather often sits in the mid-20s Celsius, with the city occasionally cooling off if a southerly change arrives. The long-term average maximum is around 25°C, but it can climb into the mid-30s on hot years, or drop into the teens if a front sweeps through. Overnight lows usually hover near 14°C. If you’re looking at the Melbourne weather forecast for the full festive period, our weather in melbourne 10 days and weather melbourne 14 days pages give extra detail.
Will it rain or storm on Christmas Day in Melbourne?
Summer storms are a possibility – roughly one in three Christmases sees at least 1 mm of rain, and the chance of a thunderstorm rises on humid afternoons. The live forecast above shows the rain risk for this year. For those checking the christmas eve weather melbourne as well, we offer a melbourne weather 21 day forecast to help you compare the whole week.
Is Christmas Day often very hot in Melbourne?
It varies. About a third of Christmases top 30°C, while another third stay below 22°C. The live forecast above will tell you where this year sits, but a cool change is always possible in the afternoon.
Can bushfires affect Christmas Day in Melbourne?
Yes, severe fire danger days have occurred on Christmas, especially during El Niño years. Check the Severe Weather Warning page for current alerts, and always follow CFA advice if you’re travelling.
What was the weather like on Christmas Day 2022 in Melbourne?
Christmas 2022 reached a top of 27.1°C with mostly sunny skies after morning drizzle – a fairly typical summer day. For historical comparisons, the weather christmas day melbourne 2022 records are useful.
For a broader outlook, visit our Australia weather hub or the dedicated Melbourne weather page.